Undiplomatic Banner
18 September 2008 Charles J. Brown
10:26 pm


Obama is back on top (ahem).  Just, I would like to add, like I predicted.

Every time I put this poll up, people tell me that national tracking polls don’t matter, that only state polls matter.

On one level, you’re correct.  Since we still have that archaic puddle of poo known as the electoral college, state polls continue to matter more.  And given the skillful analysis provided by 538.com, I don’t bother posting state results (though I may, in the future, make an exception for Michigan and Florida, the two states I spent my childhood in).

So why do I bother?  Because the Gallup poll has a history of predicting the state polls.  It is about three days ahead.  That’s why the state polls remain in the McCain column — but also why they already are showing movement towards Obama.

In three days, we’ll know whether I’m right.

And on November 1, you might just be able to predict who wins.

| posted in media, politics | 0 Comments

13 September 2008 Charles J. Brown
07:15 pm

Is McCain in Trouble?

Here’s the latest Gallup daily tracking poll:

If you are a regular poll-watcher, you can skip to the last paragraph.  But if you aren’t regularly watching them, the following might give you some useful background as to how this poll works.

Gallup calls this a daily tracking poll, but in fact, each day is a rolling average of the three most recent days.  So today’s results are the three-day average of Wednesday’s Thursday’s and Friday’s poll numbers.

So think about this for a minute.  This past Monday and Tuesday, a few days after the Republican National Convention. McCain was ahead 49-44.  Since then, his margin has eroded:

  • Wednesday: 48-43
  • Thursday: 48-44
  • Friday: 48-45
  • Saturday: 47-45

That means that the big bounce numbers after the convention are no longer part of the three-day average, and every day that passes means one less day in the average that reflects part of the bounce.   We’re now down to a two-point difference, which is statistically insignificant, and by tomorrow it could be one point or even tied.

McCain is in the middle of a pretty lousy news cycle right now:  Palin’s interview with Charlie Gibson didn’t go that well: the lies that both McCain and Palin have been peddling are starting to unravel, the pig-lipstick ploy backfired, the sex ed ad made McCain look really bad, and to ad insult to injury, McCain got hammered on The View, of all places.

After several tough weeks, it looks like the Obama campaign — and the candidate himself — have started to regain its focus,  both its own messaging and its targeted attacks on McCain-Palin.

The number to watch is the level of McCain’s support — the margin between the two candidates is much less significant.  If it continues to erode over the next few days, it could be a sign of serious problems.  Unless his campaign has some heretofore unheard dirt on Obama, or there’s some sort of October surprise, they really don’t have much left in the quiver.  The excitement around Palin (beyond the base) is starting to fade, and many folks are beginning to question McCain’s strategy, and even more troubling for him, his integrity.  In a matter of about 72 hours we’ve gone from Democratic panic to Republican floundering.

There’s nothing saying that momentum can’t change again, but every day that McCain finds himself on the defensive, it’g going to be harder for him to change the campaign narrative.

| posted in media, politics | 3 Comments

7 September 2008 Charles J. Brown
02:58 pm

Gallup: McCain Now Ahead

This is not unexpected.

This is about where we should be at this point — in the middle of the convention (and Palin) bounce.  McCain may continue to gain for the next two days, but after that, we can expect things to level off again.

| posted in media, politics | 0 Comments

1 September 2008 Charles J. Brown
12:25 am

In Case You Missed It. . .

Gallup’s daily tracking poll from today yesterday, which appears to have been lost in the coverage of Gustav and Sarah Palin:

Note that this includes two days of interviews after Obama’s speech and one day after McCain’s choice of Palin.  So the “Palin bump” appears to have been one point.

| posted in media, politics | 1 Comment

30 August 2008 Charles J. Brown
08:45 am

Poll: Last Call

I’ll have a new poll up sometime in the next few days, so this is your last chance to staple-gun your toenails to your forehead:

RSS subscribers, go here and look for the poll in the left-hand column.

| posted in foreign policy, politics, war & rumors of war | 0 Comments

28 August 2008 Charles J. Brown
06:55 pm

Apparently Americans Like Boring People

A little cupcake for you while you’re getting ready for tonight’s festivities.  Here are today’s Gallup numbers, which do not include reaction to last night’s speeches.

| posted in media, politics | 1 Comment

15 August 2008 Charles J. Brown
03:30 pm

New Poll: Which Country is the New Nazi Germany?

Yowza, boys and girls, we have a new poll!  Please be sure to vote:

If you’re using an RSS reader, you’re going to need to go to the Undip home page to vote. You can find the poll in the left-hand column.

| posted in foreign policy, politics, war & rumors of war, world at home | 0 Comments

29 July 2008 Charles J. Brown
01:14 am


Sorry, I’m pretty late in getting this to you.  Just now getting caught up from today’s consulting-palooza.  Anyway, here’s today’s Gallup daily tracker:

Not clear whether this is the narrowing I warned of or statistically insignificant.

| posted in politics | 0 Comments

28 July 2008 Charles J. Brown
06:30 am

Obama, Europe and Gallup: A Berlin Bounce?

I continue to be fascinated by this.  According to Gallup, Obama got almost no bounce from Iraq and Afghanistan, but does seem to be enjoying a not-insignificant bump from Berlin.

Here are Gallup’s own headlines from the last four days:

Read the rest of this entry »

| posted in foreign policy, politics, war & rumors of war, world at home | 0 Comments

22 July 2008 Charles J. Brown
11:00 pm

Poll: McCain and Iraq

We’re experimenting with conducting a weekly survey here at Undip.

I would appreciate it if you could take a moment to vote in the current poll, which concerns what John McCain should do on Iraq.

There are two ways you can vote.  Read the rest of this entry »

| posted in foreign policy, politics | 0 Comments

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